24 November 2023

An oil complex in Dhi Qar province, Iraq, in August 2022.

Tslippery slope for oil. The sudden collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank sent shockwaves through. Starting from the Californian beaches of Santa Monica, it was felt as far as the calm shores of Lake Zurich. Attention, wave-submersion for Credit Suisse Group! The course of the Swiss banking establishment suddenly plunged on the stock market, Wednesday, March 15, on rumors of risk of bankruptcy.

Read also: Article reserved for our subscribers Oil: “When the OPEC quota tap opens a little more, it primarily benefits the kingdom of Saud”

Faced with the urgency of the situation, the Swiss National Bank did not play for time to turn on the aid tap. On the night of Wednesday to Thursday March 16, it granted it a loan of 50 billion Swiss francs (50.7 billion euros), in order to strengthen its liquidity. One hell of a lifesaver.

What somewhat calm the wave of pessimism of the markets, worried about a risk of propagation, after the fall of the American bank. This dark mood did not spare the price of black gold. The most pessimistic anticipating a drop in demand. On Wednesday, the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in May fell back to 71.67 dollars (67.38 euros), its lowest level for fifteen months, compared to nearly 120 dollars, a year ago. year. Similarly, its US equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, for April delivery, was trading at $65.65. Pump stroke on crude…

Limited recovery in China

The Credit Suisse bailout operation has raised the level of the barrel of oil. Without euphoria, however. On Friday March 17, the price of a barrel of brent rose back to 75 dollars. A movement reinforced by the decision of eleven major American banks, taken on Thursday, to come to the rescue of First Republic, also weakened.

Philippe Chalmin, professor at Paris-Dauphine University and co-director of CyclOpe, the think tank on raw materials, is delighted to see that his forecast of an oil price of nearly 70 dollars per barrel at the end of the first semester is for the moment rather credible. Beyond the episode of the banker thrill, he justifies this course by “the $25 to $30 discount on Russian oil, which is driving prices down”. He also believes that the recovery of Chinese imports, after the end of the zero Covid strategy, remains limited.

Read also: Article reserved for our subscribers Sanctions on oil: Russia between forced lowering of its prices and circumvention

Finally, he mentions the fall in the price of gas. The European natural gas Title Transfer Facility was trading at 44 euros per megawatt hour on Friday in Amsterdam, compared to 130 euros posted a year ago. The rise in mercury, with the arrival of spring, refreshes the energy market.

You have 16.24% of this article left to read. The following is for subscribers only.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *