Like every innovation, artificial intelligence (AI) fuels fears of job destruction. While the ChatGPT program is arousing the interest of the general public and awakening the appetite of investors, the World Economic Forum figures, in a study published Monday 1er May, net job losses of 14 million worldwide over the next five years (69 million created and 83 million destroyed), or 2% of the total. He anticipates that nearly a quarter of employees will change jobs, mainly due to the emergence of new technologies.
The authors of the study base their estimates on information collected from 803 companies around the world employing 11.3 million people. The creations would be the most important in the sectors of education (+ 10%), agriculture (in particular machine operators), while the destructions would mainly affect administrative tasks, such as compatibility services.
In recent months, reports have multiplied to measure the impact of AI on business. In a study published at the end of March, Goldman Sachs predicts that in the United States and Europe, the areas most affected, nearly two thirds of jobs are “ exposed to some degree of automation by artificial intelligence ». A quarter of them could be automated. The US investment bank adds that, thanks to increased productivity alone, the planet’s annual gross domestic product could soar by 7% over the next ten years.
In collaboration with the American University of Pennsylvania, OpenAI, the company that develops ChatGPT, predicts that for 19% of jobs, especially those with the highest salaries, at least half of the tasks will be affected by artificial intelligence called “generative”. “The potential for new discoveries, changes in behavior and technological evolution can all influence the accuracy and reliability of forecasts”however, say the researchers.
“efficiencies”
These estimates are fragile and uncertain, as the adoption of new technologies is so unpredictable. In its report, the World Economic Forum finds that “ companies are introducing automation into their operations at a slower pace than expected” compared to what he anticipated in 2020. The authors evoke a two-speed automation. “ While the replacement of physical and manual labor with machines has slowed, reasoning, communication and coordination – all traits that give humans a comparative advantage – are expected to be further automated in the future.”they write.
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